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Probability of marriage

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Probability of marriage  (PROBABILITY of marriage)


Age-specific nuptiality rates (521-6) are often combined in a nuptiality table1 which is similar to a life table (431-1). The terminology relating to life tables is discussed in paras. 421-437. Gross nuptiality tables1 trace the history of a cohort (116-2) of men or women who reach the minimum age of marriage and are subjected to a set of ago-specific nuptiality rates on the assumption that there is no mortality. It is possible to calculate functions analogous to life table functions, as for instance the probabilities of marriage2 between birthday x and birthday x + 1, and the numbers remaining single3 at various ages. A net nuptiality table4 takes death rates as well as marriage rates into account. It is called a double decrement table5 or double attrition table5 because the population of single persons is subjected to attrition both by death and by marriage. The main functions of the net imptiality table are the single survivors6, persons who remain alive and unmarried at birthday x; the ever-married survivors7, persons alive at birthday x who have been married before that birthday; and the probability of single survival8 over a period, generally taken as a year. The expectation of unmarried life9 at a given age may be computed according to the gross nuptiality table and the net nuptiality table.
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